Trendline Labs
NFL
Moneyline

NFL Moneyline System Records

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Every tracked NFL moneyline betting system. Verified W-L, ROI, and CLV across 30322 graded picks.

Trendline Labs tracks 75 NFL moneyline betting systems with a combined 19436-10886 record (64.1% hit rate) across 30322 graded picks.

TRACKED SYSTEMS

75

COMBINED RECORD

19436-10886

HIT RATE

64.10%

AVG ROI

+33.91%

Top NFL Moneyline Systems by ROI

SystemRecordHit RateROI
Strong Favorites with Kicking Scoring49-296.08%+83.42%
Favorites with Fair Catch Volume83-495.40%+82.13%
Strong Favorites with Scoring Swings58-395.08%+81.52%
Favorites with Elo & Short FGs63-494.03%+79.51%
Home Favorites with 82%+ Odds105-992.11%+75.84%
Elo Edge With Scoring Variance31-391.18%+74.06%
Elite QB vs Cold Offenses75-890.36%+72.51%
Home Dogs with Hot Turnovers92-1189.32%+70.52%
Elo Value vs Weak Opponents114-1886.36%+64.88%
Favorites with Sack Dominance25-486.21%+64.58%
Mid-Season Value Dogs143-2684.62%+61.54%
Elite QB Home Teams74-1682.22%+56.97%
Short Kickoff Competitive Teams191-4381.62%+55.83%
Winning Teams vs Stingy Defenses60-1580.00%+52.73%
Market Undervalued Teams171-4379.91%+52.55%
Near-Even Teams with Elo Edge94-2678.33%+49.55%
Favorites with Fumble Recovery Luck154-4477.78%+48.48%
Home Teams with Strong Form245-7177.53%+48.01%
Favorites with Backfield Pressure51-1577.27%+47.52%
Elo Favorites with Low Tempo137-4276.54%+46.11%
Elo Favorites with Slow Pace137-4276.54%+46.11%
Home Elo Teams with Air Control188-5976.11%+45.31%
Passing Teams vs Cold Offenses167-5475.57%+44.26%
Favorites with Modest Edge62-2174.70%+42.61%
Home Favorites with Pass Defense120-4174.53%+42.29%
Momentum vs Weak Opponents204-7473.38%+40.09%
Home Teams vs High-Scoring Foes66-2473.33%+40.00%
Low-Possession Home Elo Value85-3471.43%+36.36%
Rested INT Defense94-4070.15%+33.92%
High-Scoring Variance Teams422-18169.98%+33.60%
Moderate Favorites with Red Zone Volume163-7069.96%+33.55%
Elo Favorites vs Underpriced Lines146-6369.86%+33.36%
Elo Favorites with Low Play Volume257-11169.84%+33.33%
Moderate Favorites with Volatile Scoring29-1369.05%+31.82%
Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses394-18168.52%+30.81%
Home Teams with High Elo Momentum77-3767.54%+28.95%
Favorites vs Weak Elo Teams196-9567.35%+28.58%
Elo Favorites with Low Play Volume225-11166.96%+27.84%
Favorites with Short Kickoffs401-20566.17%+26.33%
Home Form vs Weak Opponents230-12065.71%+25.45%
Rested Low Scorers with Variance68-3665.38%+24.83%
Elo Parity vs Cold Offenses362-19465.11%+24.30%
Moderate Favorites in Season621-33664.89%+23.88%
High Miscellaneous First Downs Against Weak Elo Favorites404-21964.85%+23.80%
Home Teams vs Weak Opponents319-17464.71%+23.53%
Home Teams with Inconsistent Form110-6064.71%+23.53%
Hot QB vs Cold Offenses645-35764.37%+22.89%
Teams vs Moderate Offenses411-22864.32%+22.79%
Strong Offenses After FG Woes512-28963.92%+22.03%
Elo Favorites with Cold Offense354-20063.90%+21.99%
Hot QB vs Cold Offense644-36463.89%+21.97%
Scoring Teams After Pass Slump523-30263.39%+21.02%
Strong Kickers vs Weak Elo297-17662.79%+19.87%
Teams with Deep Field Goals285-16962.78%+19.84%
Home Favorites with Stingy Pick D259-15562.56%+19.43%
Teams vs Low-Scoring Opponents268-16262.33%+18.99%
Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses111-7061.33%+17.08%
Teams vs Stingy Defenses674-43161.00%+16.45%
Favorites with Backfield Pressure70-4560.87%+16.21%
Team vs Cold Opponents668-43260.73%+15.93%
Team vs High-Scoring Opponents167-10860.73%+15.93%
Fresh Teams Against Weak Competition with Limited Kicking461-30260.42%+15.35%
High-Scoring Undisciplined Teams555-37159.94%+14.42%
Elo Value with Shaky Kickers466-31459.74%+14.06%
Winning Teams vs Soft Defenses485-34058.79%+12.23%
Winners With Leaky Defenses794-56658.38%+11.46%
Teams with Leaky Defense492-35658.02%+10.76%
Road Teams with High Pass Yards207-15157.82%+10.39%
Offenses vs Scoring Opponents244-17957.68%+10.12%
Balanced Favorites Near Even594-44557.17%+9.14%
Low-Pace Teams vs Market457-34956.70%+8.24%
Leaky Defense vs Cold Offense224-18155.31%+5.59%
Teams with Hot 4th Down Conversion190-15555.07%+5.14%
Fair Catch Avoiders vs Cold Offenses447-37054.71%+4.45%
Teams with Kicking Struggles370-31753.86%+2.82%

How We Track NFL Moneyline Systems

Each system in this cluster is an ML-discovered betting rule tested against historical NFL games. Systems earn a spot when they show a statistically meaningful edge over the closing line. The combined 19436-10886 record across 75 systems represents a profitable long-term result — every pick is graded against the closing line, so CLV and ROI reflect bet-able reality, not back-tested fantasy.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many NFL Moneyline betting systems are tracked?

Trendline currently tracks 75 NFL Moneyline systems with a combined 19436-10886 record (64.1% hit rate) across 30322 graded picks. Each system is an ML-discovered rule tested against historical games and live-tracked going forward.

Which NFL Moneyline system has the highest ROI?

"Strong Favorites with Kicking Scoring" currently leads all tracked NFL Moneyline systems at +83.42% ROI on a 49-2 record. ROI reflects performance against the closing line at $100 flat stakes — not a back-tested figure.

How do NFL Moneyline systems get graded against the closing line?

Every qualifying pick is settled against the sharpest closing price. Closing line value (CLV) measures whether the pick's original number beat the market's final number. Consistent positive CLV over 50+ picks is the single strongest indicator of long-term profitability.

What sample size is meaningful for a NFL Moneyline betting system?

15-20 picks is the floor for statistical signal, and 50+ picks is where a real edge typically separates from variance. Short-sample systems can look exceptional or terrible purely by luck — sample size matters more than any one headline number.

See Also in NFL

System records generated from proprietary ML analysis. Every record is graded against actual closing lines.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

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NFL Moneyline System Records | Trendline Labs