Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses
Backs teams with strong recent passing efficiency (high QBR over last 3 games) facing opponents that have averaged limited scoring over their last 5 games, filtered for favorable rest conditions.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
1167
HIT RATE
68.52%
RECORD
394-181
ROI
+30.81%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Pass Espnqbrating
Opp Avg 5 Pts
Prob Rest Ix
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 394-181 (68.52% hit rate) with 30.81% ROI across 575 graded picks. Closing line value averages 34.89, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1167 total qualifying games, with 575 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
394
575
181
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES