NFL Over/Under System Records
Every tracked NFL over/under betting system. Verified W-L, ROI, and CLV across 2353 graded picks.
TRACKED SYSTEMS
12
COMBINED RECORD
1396-957
HIT RATE
59.33%
AVG ROI
+16.45%
See Also in NFL
How We Track NFL Over/Under Systems
Each system in this cluster is an ML-discovered betting rule tested against historical NFL games. Systems earn a spot when they show a statistically meaningful edge over the closing line. The combined 1396-957 record across 12 systems represents a profitable long-term result — every pick is graded against the closing line, so CLV and ROI reflect bet-able reality, not back-tested fantasy.
Top NFL Over/Under Systems by ROI
| System | Record | Hit Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over Late-Season Secure Momentum | 61-30 | 67.03% | +27.97% |
| Under Late-Season Defensive Teams | 37-19 | 66.07% | +26.14% |
| Over vs Elite Recent Defenses | 112-65 | 63.28% | +20.80% |
| Team Over After Blowouts | 51-30 | 62.96% | +20.20% |
| Late Season Over vs Stingy Defenses | 110-67 | 62.15% | +18.64% |
| Over Late-Season Momentum | 71-45 | 61.21% | +16.85% |
| Over Late-Season Momentum Plays | 71-45 | 61.21% | +16.85% |
| Over vs Ball-Control Defenses | 128-83 | 60.66% | +15.81% |
| Favorites vs Stingy Defenses | 174-131 | 57.05% | +8.91% |
| Over in Late-Season Kicker Slumps | 193-146 | 56.93% | +8.69% |
| Over After Late-Season XP Struggles | 194-148 | 56.73% | +8.29% |
| Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots | 194-148 | 56.73% | +8.29% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How many NFL Over/Under betting systems are tracked?▾
Trendline currently tracks 12 NFL Over/Under systems with a combined 1396-957 record (59.33% hit rate) across 2353 graded picks. Each system is an ML-discovered rule tested against historical games and live-tracked going forward.
Which NFL Over/Under system has the highest ROI?▾
"Over Late-Season Secure Momentum" currently leads all tracked NFL Over/Under systems at +27.97% ROI on a 61-30 record. ROI reflects performance against the closing line at $100 flat stakes — not a back-tested figure.
How do NFL Over/Under systems get graded against the closing line?▾
Every qualifying pick is settled against the sharpest closing price. Closing line value (CLV) measures whether the pick's original number beat the market's final number. Consistent positive CLV over 50+ picks is the single strongest indicator of long-term profitability.
What sample size is meaningful for a NFL Over/Under betting system?▾
15-20 picks is the floor for statistical signal, and 50+ picks is where a real edge typically separates from variance. Short-sample systems can look exceptional or terrible purely by luck — sample size matters more than any one headline number.