Teams vs Moderate Offenses
Backs teams that have performed near breakeven or better over their last 10 games while allowing a relatively high number of points, facing opponents whose recent offensive output has been at or below a moderate threshold.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
1366
HIT RATE
64.32%
RECORD
411-228
ROI
+22.79%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Margin
Ewma Pts Allowed
Opp Avg 5 Pts
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Teams vs Moderate Offenses" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 411-228 (64.32% hit rate) with 22.79% ROI across 639 graded picks. Closing line value averages 19.77, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Teams vs Moderate Offenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Teams vs Moderate Offenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1366 total qualifying games, with 639 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
411
639
228
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES