Low-Pace Teams vs Market
Backs teams that have run fewer than average offensive plays over their last three games, are nearly competitive with their opponent by Elo rating, and are rated at or above market expectations. Targets situations where recent low-pace execution aligns with underlying strength metrics that the market may undervalue.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
457
806
349
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Miscellaneous Totalplays
Elo Diff
Elo Vs Market
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Low-Pace Teams vs Market" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 457-349 (56.70% hit rate) with 8.24% ROI across 806 graded picks. Closing line value averages -16.53, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Low-Pace Teams vs Market system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Low-Pace Teams vs Market system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1853 total qualifying games, with 806 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
1853
HIT RATE
56.70%
RECORD
457-349
ROI
+8.24%