Mid-Season Value Dogs
Backs teams in the second half of the season whose recent performance has been near break-even or better over their last 10 games, but whose Elo rating remains notably below what the betting market odds imply about their strength.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
296
HIT RATE
84.62%
RECORD
143-26
ROI
+61.54%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Margin
Elo Vs Market
Season Games
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105-9 record · 92.1% hit rate
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31-3 record · 91.2% hit rate
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Mid-Season Value Dogs" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 143-26 (84.62% hit rate) with 61.54% ROI across 169 graded picks. Closing line value averages 112.46, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Mid-Season Value Dogs system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Mid-Season Value Dogs system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 296 total qualifying games, with 169 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
143
169
26
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES