Elo Value with Shaky Kickers
Backs teams near break-even or better over their last 10 games, with recent field goal accuracy below 72.3%, whose Elo rating meets or slightly exceeds market expectations.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Margin
Avg 3 Kick Fieldgoalpct
Elo Vs Market
TOTAL PICKS
1582
HIT RATE
59.74%
RECORD
466-314
ROI
+14.06%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
466
780
314
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Elo Value with Shaky Kickers" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 466-314 (59.74% hit rate) with 14.06% ROI across 780 graded picks. Closing line value averages -6.86, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Elo Value with Shaky Kickers system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Elo Value with Shaky Kickers system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1582 total qualifying games, with 780 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.