Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses
Backs teams with recent below-threshold quarterback ratings facing opponents held to limited scoring over their last 5 games, operating under a negative rest advantage.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
350
HIT RATE
61.33%
RECORD
111-70
ROI
+17.08%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Pass Espnqbrating
Opp Avg 5 Pts
Prob Rest Ix
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 111-70 (61.33% hit rate) with 17.08% ROI across 181 graded picks. Closing line value averages -3.85, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Team vs Low-Scoring Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 350 total qualifying games, with 181 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
111
181
70
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES