High-Scoring Undisciplined Teams
Backs teams that have averaged more than 4.8 penalties per game over their last 3 contests while maintaining high offensive output (24+ points per game over their last 5) and meeting a specific rest-related threshold.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
1817
HIT RATE
59.94%
RECORD
555-371
ROI
+14.42%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Miscellaneous Totalpenalties
Avg 5 Pts
Prob Rest Ix
Related NFL Moneyline Systems
Favorites with Fair Catch Volume
83-4 record · 95.4% hit rate
Favorites with Elo & Short FGs
63-4 record · 94.0% hit rate
Home Favorites with 82%+ Odds
105-9 record · 92.1% hit rate
Elo Edge With Scoring Variance
31-3 record · 91.2% hit rate
Elite QB vs Cold Offenses
75-8 record · 90.4% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "High-Scoring Undisciplined Teams" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 555-371 (59.94% hit rate) with 14.42% ROI across 926 graded picks. Closing line value averages 20.45, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the High-Scoring Undisciplined Teams system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the High-Scoring Undisciplined Teams system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1817 total qualifying games, with 926 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
555
926
371
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES