Leaky Defense vs Cold Offense
Backs teams that have allowed substantial scoring recently (EWMA points allowed exceeding 23.99) when facing opponents averaging 19.63 points or fewer over their last 5 games, provided the team being bet on was in a close game decided by 6.5 points or fewer in their previous contest.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Ewma Pts Allowed
Opp Avg 5 Pts
Prev Margin
TOTAL PICKS
864
HIT RATE
55.31%
RECORD
224-181
ROI
+5.59%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
224
405
181
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NFL Moneyline Systems
Favorites with Fair Catch Volume
83-4 record · 95.4% hit rate
Favorites with Elo & Short FGs
63-4 record · 94.0% hit rate
Home Favorites with 82%+ Odds
105-9 record · 92.1% hit rate
Elo Edge With Scoring Variance
31-3 record · 91.2% hit rate
Elite QB vs Cold Offenses
75-8 record · 90.4% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Leaky Defense vs Cold Offense" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 224-181 (55.31% hit rate) with 5.59% ROI across 405 graded picks. Closing line value averages 4.88, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Leaky Defense vs Cold Offense system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Leaky Defense vs Cold Offense system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 864 total qualifying games, with 405 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.