Over vs Elite Recent Defenses
Backs the over in late-season games (after week 14) when the team is on standard rest of seven days or fewer and facing an opponent whose defense has allowed 19.3 points or fewer per game over their last five outings.
Part of all NFL Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Game Number In Season
Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Rest Days
Team has had at most 7.8108 days of rest.
TOTAL PICKS
463
HIT RATE
63.28%
RECORD
112-65
ROI
+20.80%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
112
177
65
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NFL Over/Under Systems
Over Late-Season Secure Momentum
61-30 record · 67.0% hit rate
Under Late-Season Defensive Teams
37-19 record · 66.1% hit rate
Team Over After Blowouts
51-30 record · 63.0% hit rate
Late Season Over vs Stingy Defenses
110-67 record · 62.1% hit rate
Over Late-Season Momentum
71-45 record · 61.2% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over vs Elite Recent Defenses" NFL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 112-65 (63.28% hit rate) with 20.80% ROI across 177 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.80, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over vs Elite Recent Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over vs Elite Recent Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 463 total qualifying games, with 177 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.