Trendline Labs

Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Targets over bets in late-season games where the team has struggled with extra point accuracy over their last three games and shows low current momentum metrics.

Part of all NFL Over/Under system records.

TOTAL PICKS

836

HIT RATE

56.73%

RECORD

194-148

ROI

+8.29%

Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots is a verified NFL over/under betting system that targets over bets in late-season games where the team has struggled with extra point accuracy over their last three games and shows low current momentum metrics. Tracked across 342 graded picks, it holds a 194-148 record with a 56.73% hit rate and 8.29% ROI. Average closing line value: 0.5816 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 3 Kick Extrapointpct

at most 93.83avg_3_kick_extrapointpct
2

Ewma Momentum

at most 3.02ewma_momentum
3

Season Games

above 13.50season_games

Related NFL Over/Under Systems

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots" NFL Over/Under system still work?

The system's live record is 194-148 (56.73% hit rate) with 8.29% ROI across 342 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.58, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots system fire a pick?

The system triggers a NFL over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Overs in Late-Season Fade Spots system?

The system has been evaluated against 836 total qualifying games, with 342 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

194

342

148

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

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