Trendline Labs

Team vs Mid-Tier Elo Opponents

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs teams showing plate discipline efficiency (3.685 or fewer pitches per plate appearance over their last 10 games) and pitching consistency (standard deviation of 1.1402 or less in earned runs over the last 5 games) when facing opponents with Elo ratings between 1420.515 and 1470.985.

Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.

Team vs Mid-Tier Elo Opponents is a verified MLB moneyline betting system that backs teams showing plate discipline efficiency (3.685 or fewer pitches per plate appearance over their last 10 games) and pitching consistency (standard deviation of 1.1402 or less in earned runs over the last 5 games) when facing opponents with Elo ratings between 1420.515 and 1470.985. Tracked across 88 graded picks, it holds a 56-32 record with a 63.64% hit rate and 21.49% ROI. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

56

88

32

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

Related MLB Moneyline Systems

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 10 Pitch Pitchesperplateappearance

at most 3.69avg_10_pitch_pitchesperplateappearance
2

Opp Elo

at most 1470.98opp_elo
3

Opp Elo

above 1420.52opp_elo
4

Std 5 Pitch Earnedruns

at most 1.14std_5_pitch_earnedruns

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Team vs Mid-Tier Elo Opponents" MLB Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 56-32 (63.64% hit rate) with 21.49% ROI across 88 graded picks. Closing line value averages -2.24, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Team vs Mid-Tier Elo Opponents system fire a pick?

The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Team vs Mid-Tier Elo Opponents system?

The system has been evaluated against 195 total qualifying games, with 88 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

195

HIT RATE

63.64%

RECORD

56-32

ROI

+21.49%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

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