Trendline Labs

Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs home teams whose pitching staff has averaged more than 72.7 strikes per game over their last 5 games, whose home Elo rating exceeds both specified thresholds, and whose assigned umpire has a home team winning percentage above 56.39%.

Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.

TOTAL PICKS

1081

HIT RATE

79.12%

RECORD

394-104

ROI

+51.04%

Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps is a verified MLB moneyline betting system that backs home teams whose pitching staff has averaged more than 72.7 strikes per game over their last 5 games, whose home Elo rating exceeds both specified thresholds, and whose assigned umpire has a home team winning percentage above 56.39%. Tracked across 498 graded picks, it holds a 394-104 record with a 79.12% hit rate and 51.04% ROI. Average closing line value: 2.2211 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 5 Pitch Strikes

above 72.70avg_5_pitch_strikes
2

Home Team Elo Rating

above 5.74elo_home_ix

Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.

3

Home Team Elo Rating

above 121.62elo_home_ix

Home team's Elo rating is above 121.62. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.

4

Referee Home Win %

above 0.56ref_home_win_pct

Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 56%.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps" MLB Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 394-104 (79.12% hit rate) with 51.04% ROI across 498 graded picks. Closing line value averages 2.22, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps system fire a pick?

The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps system?

The system has been evaluated against 1081 total qualifying games, with 498 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

394

498

104

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

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