Trendline Labs

Home Teams with Strike Dominance

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs home moneyline favorites with recent pitching dominance (averaging over 72.7 strikes per game in their last five) and strong home Elo ratings, while filtering to a specific mid-to-high home win percentage range that excludes both the weakest and strongest home performers.

Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.

Home Teams with Strike Dominance is a verified MLB moneyline betting system that backs home moneyline favorites with recent pitching dominance (averaging over 72.7 strikes per game in their last five) and strong home Elo ratings, while filtering to a specific mid-to-high home win percentage range that excludes both the weakest and strongest home performers. Tracked across 1992 graded picks, it holds a 1358-634 record with a 68.17% hit rate and 30.15% ROI. Average closing line value: 0.7881 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

TOTAL PICKS

4282

HIT RATE

68.17%

RECORD

1358-634

ROI

+30.15%

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

1358

1992

634

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 5 Pitch Strikes

above 72.70avg_5_pitch_strikes
2

Home Team Elo Rating

above 5.74elo_home_ix

Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.

3

Referee Home Win %

at most 0.68ref_home_win_pct

Crew has a historical home-team win rate below 68%.

4

Referee Home Win %

above 0.56ref_home_win_pct

Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 56%.

Related MLB Moneyline Systems

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Home Teams with Strike Dominance" MLB Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 1358-634 (68.17% hit rate) with 30.15% ROI across 1992 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.79, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Home Teams with Strike Dominance system fire a pick?

The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Strike Dominance system?

The system has been evaluated against 4282 total qualifying games, with 1992 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

Matchups

Systems

Titan