Home Favorites Close to Market
Backs home teams with elevated Elo ratings that are priced nearly even with market expectations, where the Elo-to-market differential falls in a tight range slightly below to slightly above the market line.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
240
304
64
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.03 | +$0.62 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | -0.43 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | -0.02 | +$0.57 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.04 | +$0.46 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | W | +0.04 | +$0.70 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | W | — | +$0.82 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.60 |
| Apr 4, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | +0.03 | +$0.39 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | +0.04 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.02 | +$0.37 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | +0.03 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$244.50 across 13 picks.
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 114.765. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Elo Vs Market
Elo Vs Market
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites Close to Market" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 240-64 (78.95% hit rate) with 50.72% ROI across 304 graded picks. Closing line value averages 11.75, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites Close to Market system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites Close to Market system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 608 total qualifying games, with 304 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
608
HIT RATE
78.95%
RECORD
240-64
ROI
+50.72%