Trendline Labs

Home Teams with Efficient Plate Discipline

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs home teams that have seen 128 or fewer pitches per game over their last 5 games while maintaining a strong home Elo rating and a home winning percentage above 56.39%.

Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.

Home Teams with Efficient Plate Discipline is a verified MLB moneyline betting system that backs home teams that have seen 128 or fewer pitches per game over their last 5 games while maintaining a strong home Elo rating and a home winning percentage above 56.39%. Tracked across 540 graded picks, it holds a 311-229 record with a 57.59% hit rate and 9.95% ROI. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

311

540

229

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

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When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 5 Bat Pitches

at most 128.10avg_5_bat_pitches
2

Home Team Elo Rating

above 5.74elo_home_ix

Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.

3

Referee Home Win %

above 0.56ref_home_win_pct

Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 56%.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Home Teams with Efficient Plate Discipline" MLB Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 311-229 (57.59% hit rate) with 9.95% ROI across 540 graded picks. Closing line value averages -6.97, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Home Teams with Efficient Plate Discipline system fire a pick?

The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Efficient Plate Discipline system?

The system has been evaluated against 1146 total qualifying games, with 540 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

1146

HIT RATE

57.59%

RECORD

311-229

ROI

+9.95%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

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