Home Favorites with High Pitch Counts
Backs teams with strong home Elo ratings that have averaged over 6.75 hits per game, seen more than 122 pitches per game in their last 5 contests, and limited fly balls allowed to under 14 per game over their last 10 games.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
2193
3580
1387
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Bat Hits
Avg 10 Pitch Flyballs
Avg 5 Bat Pitches
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites with High Pitch Counts" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 2193-1387 (61.26% hit rate) with 16.95% ROI across 3580 graded picks. Closing line value averages 3.84, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites with High Pitch Counts system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites with High Pitch Counts system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 8284 total qualifying games, with 3580 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
8284
HIT RATE
61.26%
RECORD
2193-1387
ROI
+16.95%