Home Favorites with Fly Ball Risk
Backs home teams with strong Elo ratings that exceed market expectations, where the pitcher has recently allowed an elevated rate of fly balls over their last 5 games.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Pitch Flyballs
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 114.765. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Elo Vs Market
TOTAL PICKS
3045
HIT RATE
64.53%
RECORD
904-497
ROI
+23.18%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
904
1401
497
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites with Fly Ball Risk" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 904-497 (64.53% hit rate) with 23.18% ROI across 1401 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.82, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites with Fly Ball Risk system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites with Fly Ball Risk system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 3045 total qualifying games, with 1401 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.