Home Favorites After Early Season
Backs home teams with a slight Elo advantage and strong home performance ratings after the first 25 games of the season. Targets games where the home team holds an Elo edge up to 111 points and maintains a home Elo index above 80.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
681
1129
448
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, '26 | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.07 | +$0.95 |
| May 23, '26 | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.03 | +$0.95 |
| May 22, '26 | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.04 | +$0.90 |
| May 21, '26 | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| May 20, '26 | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | home | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
| May 19, '26 | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | home | L | -0.02 | -$1.00 |
| May 18, '26 | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.94 |
| May 17, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| May 16, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | away | W | -0.02 | +$1.16 |
| May 15, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays | away | L | -0.02 | -$1.00 |
| May 14, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | away | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
| May 13, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | away | W | +0.02 | +$0.78 |
| May 12, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins | away | L | -0.11 | -$1.00 |
| May 10, '26 | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.78 |
| May 9, '26 | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | home | W | -0.03 | +$0.63 |
| May 8, '26 | Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | home | L | -0.09 | -$1.00 |
| May 7, '26 | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | home | W | +0.04 | +$0.83 |
| May 6, '26 | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | home | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
| May 5, '26 | Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| May 4, '26 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | home | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$389.30 across 50 picks.
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 80.01. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Season Games
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites After Early Season" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 681-448 (60.32% hit rate) with 15.15% ROI across 1129 graded picks. Closing line value averages 2.01, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites After Early Season system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites After Early Season system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 2501 total qualifying games, with 1129 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
2501
HIT RATE
60.32%
RECORD
681-448
ROI
+15.15%