Favorites with Elite Elo Edge
Backs moneyline favorites with an Elo rating advantage exceeding 95.905 points over their opponent, where the team's Elo rating is within 0.0697 points of the market-implied rating or rated lower than what the market suggests.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
940
1358
418
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.03 | +$0.62 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | -0.43 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | -0.02 | +$0.57 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.04 | +$0.46 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | L | +0.02 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | W | +0.04 | +$0.70 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | away | W | — | +$0.82 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.60 |
| Apr 4, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | +0.03 | +$0.39 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals | away | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | W | +0.02 | +$0.37 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | +0.03 | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers | home | L | +0.04 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$244.50 across 13 picks.
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Elo Vs Market
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Favorites with Elite Elo Edge" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 940-418 (69.22% hit rate) with 32.15% ROI across 1358 graded picks. Closing line value averages 7.62, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Favorites with Elite Elo Edge system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Favorites with Elite Elo Edge system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 2716 total qualifying games, with 1358 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
2716
HIT RATE
69.22%
RECORD
940-418
ROI
+32.15%