Elite Elo Over Market Value
Backs teams with an Elo rating at least 158.775 points higher than their opponent, a home Elo index no higher than 92.925, and an Elo rating that exceeds market expectations by more than 0.0023 points.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is below 92.925. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Elo Vs Market
TOTAL PICKS
1476
HIT RATE
61.29%
RECORD
418-264
ROI
+17.01%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
418
682
264
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Elite Elo Over Market Value" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 418-264 (61.29% hit rate) with 17.01% ROI across 682 graded picks. Closing line value averages -3.14, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Elite Elo Over Market Value system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Elite Elo Over Market Value system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1476 total qualifying games, with 682 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.