Underdog Puckline with Weak Goaltending
Backs underdogs on the spread when their recent goaltending has been below-average (save percentage of 89.23% or lower over their last 10 games) and their implied win probability is 40.1% or less.
Part of all NHL ATS system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
370
617
247
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 14, '26 | San Jose Sharks @ Nashville Predators | away | W | +3.00 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 14, '26 | Los Angeles Kings @ Seattle Kraken | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs | away | W | +3.00 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Seattle Kraken | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 10, '26 | San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Florida Panthers @ Ottawa Senators | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Minnesota Wild | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens | away | W | +3.00 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Winnipeg Jets | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Boston Bruins @ Florida Panthers | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Edmonton Oilers | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$254.50 across 15 picks.
Related NHL ATS Systems
Underdog Puckline vs Low-Scoring Foes
74-35 record · 67.9% hit rate
Puckline vs Volatile Defense
66-36 record · 64.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Hot Shot Metrics
148-82 record · 64.3% hit rate
Puckline vs Volatile Defense
170-100 record · 63.0% hit rate
Underdogs with Moderate Blocking
119-70 record · 63.0% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Def Savepct
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins less than 40% of the time.
Market Role
Team is the underdog.
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Underdog Puckline with Weak Goaltending" NHL ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 370-247 (59.97% hit rate) with 14.48% ROI across 617 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.00, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Underdog Puckline with Weak Goaltending system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Underdog Puckline with Weak Goaltending system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1252 total qualifying games, with 617 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
1252
HIT RATE
59.97%
RECORD
370-247
ROI
+14.48%