Teams with Weak Penalty Kills
Backs teams whose shot differential over the last 10 games averages above -1.55, whose penalty kill percentage over the last 5 games is at or below 69.33%, whose rest index probability exceeds 0.5208, and whose offensive points standard deviation over the last 10 games exceeds 5.4324. These conditions isolate teams with relatively balanced recent shot metrics and inconsistent offensive output that are currently struggling on the penalty kill and meet a specific rest-related threshold.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
130
HIT RATE
72.31%
RECORD
47-18
ROI
+38.04%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Gen Shotdifferential
Avg 5 Def Penaltykillpct
Prob Rest Ix
Std 10 Off Points
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
Elo Favorites with Score Variance
72-5 record · 93.5% hit rate
Home Elo Favorites in Low-Scoring
51-4 record · 92.7% hit rate
Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Teams with Weak Penalty Kills" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 47-18 (72.31% hit rate) with 38.04% ROI across 65 graded picks. Closing line value averages 18.91, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Teams with Weak Penalty Kills system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Teams with Weak Penalty Kills system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 130 total qualifying games, with 65 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
47
65
18
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES