Strong Favorites vs Stingy Defenses
Bets on favorites with an Elo rating more than 39.64 points higher than their opponent when the market undervalues them slightly, facing opponents who have allowed 0.1924 goals or fewer per game over their last 5 games.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Vs Market
Opp Pavg 5 P Avggoalsagainst Mean
TOTAL PICKS
178
HIT RATE
86.17%
RECORD
81-13
ROI
+64.51%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
81
94
13
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
Elo Favorites with Score Variance
72-5 record · 93.5% hit rate
Home Elo Favorites in Low-Scoring
51-4 record · 92.7% hit rate
Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Strong Favorites vs Stingy Defenses" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 81-13 (86.17% hit rate) with 64.51% ROI across 94 graded picks. Closing line value averages 20.02, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Strong Favorites vs Stingy Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Strong Favorites vs Stingy Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 178 total qualifying games, with 94 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.