Over with Shaky Defense
Targets teams showing inconsistent defensive performance (high variation in goals allowed) but consistent offensive output over their last 5 games, creating conditions favorable for high-scoring outcomes.
Part of all NHL Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Std 5 Def Goalsagainst
Std 5 Off Points
TOTAL PICKS
351
HIT RATE
63.11%
RECORD
65-38
ROI
+20.48%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
65
103
38
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NHL Over/Under Systems
Overs with Penalty-Heavy Refs
89-46 record · 65.9% hit rate
Team Over in High-Save Games
99-53 record · 65.1% hit rate
High-Scoring Team Overs
120-65 record · 64.9% hit rate
Over in Moderate Defensive Variance
66-36 record · 64.7% hit rate
Over in High-Scoring Inconsistent D
63-35 record · 64.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over with Shaky Defense" NHL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 65-38 (63.11% hit rate) with 20.48% ROI across 103 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.03, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over with Shaky Defense system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL over/under pick only when all 2 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over with Shaky Defense system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 351 total qualifying games, with 103 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.