Over in Moderate Defensive Variance
Targets overs when the team being bet on has shown a standard deviation in goals against between 2.4495 and 2.569 over their last 5 games, indicating their defensive performance has varied within a specific moderate range recently.
Part of all NHL Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Std 5 Def Goalsagainst
Std 5 Def Goalsagainst
TOTAL PICKS
336
HIT RATE
64.71%
RECORD
66-36
ROI
+23.53%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
66
102
36
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NHL Over/Under Systems
Overs with Penalty-Heavy Refs
89-46 record · 65.9% hit rate
Team Over in High-Save Games
99-53 record · 65.1% hit rate
High-Scoring Team Overs
120-65 record · 64.9% hit rate
Over in High-Scoring Inconsistent D
63-35 record · 64.3% hit rate
Over in High-Scoring Volatile Games
98-55 record · 64.0% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over in Moderate Defensive Variance" NHL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 66-36 (64.71% hit rate) with 23.53% ROI across 102 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.02, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over in Moderate Defensive Variance system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL over/under pick only when all 2 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over in Moderate Defensive Variance system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 336 total qualifying games, with 102 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.