Over in Steady Low-Win Games
Targets overs in games involving teams with below-average win totals (26 or fewer) that participate in higher-scoring contests on average and have shown consistent offensive output recently, as measured by low variability in goals scored over their last 10 games.
Part of all NHL Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Ref Avg Total
Season Wins
Std 10 Off Goals
TOTAL PICKS
840
HIT RATE
57.24%
RECORD
170-127
ROI
+9.27%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights | over | W | -0.18 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Philadelphia Flyers @ Winnipeg Jets | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Winnipeg Jets | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars | over | L | -0.45 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Chicago Blackhawks | over | W | -0.14 | +$0.91 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$72.70 across 6 picks.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
170
297
127
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Picks by Month
Related NHL Over/Under Systems
Overs with Penalty-Heavy Refs
89-46 record · 65.9% hit rate
Team Over in High-Save Games
99-53 record · 65.1% hit rate
High-Scoring Team Overs
120-65 record · 64.9% hit rate
Over in Moderate Defensive Variance
66-36 record · 64.7% hit rate
Over in High-Scoring Inconsistent D
63-35 record · 64.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over in Steady Low-Win Games" NHL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 170-127 (57.24% hit rate) with 9.27% ROI across 297 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.03, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over in Steady Low-Win Games system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over in Steady Low-Win Games system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 840 total qualifying games, with 297 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.