Over in High-Scoring Variance Games
Targets over bets in games involving a team that participates in higher-scoring contests (reference average total above 6.1 goals) and has shown moderate variability in defensive performance over their last 5 games, neither highly consistent nor highly erratic in goals allowed.
Part of all NHL Over/Under system records.
TOTAL PICKS
3715
HIT RATE
54.42%
RECORD
634-531
ROI
+3.89%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | San Jose Sharks @ Nashville Predators | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 14, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights | over | W | -0.18 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks | over | P | -0.05 | $0.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ San Jose Sharks | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ San Jose Sharks | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Philadelphia Flyers @ Winnipeg Jets | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings | over | L | +0.14 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 10, '26 | San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks | over | W | +0.05 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Edmonton Oilers @ San Jose Sharks | over | W | +0.05 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Vancouver Canucks | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Chicago Blackhawks @ San Jose Sharks | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Winnipeg Jets | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Toronto Maple Leafs @ San Jose Sharks | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Minnesota Wild | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars | over | L | -0.45 | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Vegas Golden Knights | over | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche | over | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Mar 31, '26 | St. Louis Blues @ San Jose Sharks | over | W | -0.14 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Chicago Blackhawks | over | W | -0.14 | +$0.91 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$200.00 across 21 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Ref Avg Total
Std 5 Def Goalsagainst
Std 5 Def Goalsagainst
Picks by Month
Related NHL Over/Under Systems
Overs with Penalty-Heavy Refs
89-46 record · 65.9% hit rate
Team Over in High-Save Games
99-53 record · 65.1% hit rate
High-Scoring Team Overs
120-65 record · 64.9% hit rate
Over in Moderate Defensive Variance
66-36 record · 64.7% hit rate
Over in High-Scoring Inconsistent D
63-35 record · 64.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over in High-Scoring Variance Games" NHL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 634-531 (54.42% hit rate) with 3.89% ROI across 1165 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.01, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over in High-Scoring Variance Games system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over in High-Scoring Variance Games system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 3715 total qualifying games, with 1165 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
634
1165
531
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES