Home Teams with Ref Home Edge
Backs home teams with low recent defensive hit totals (under 28.1 per game over last 5), near-even or favorable Elo ratings, strong home Elo performance, and referees whose assigned games historically favor the home team at a greater than 51.9% rate.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
696
933
237
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights | away | L | +0.03 | -$1.00 |
| May 23, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| May 21, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| May 14, '26 | Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | — | +$0.45 |
| May 12, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild | away | W | — | +$0.66 |
| May 10, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| May 6, '26 | Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.51 |
| May 4, '26 | Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.51 |
| Apr 26, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Los Angeles Kings | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.58 |
| Apr 24, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Los Angeles Kings | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.66 |
| Apr 22, '26 | Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.02 | +$0.40 |
| Apr 19, '26 | Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.37 |
| Apr 19, '26 | TBD @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 17, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.46 |
| Apr 17, '26 | Los Angeles Kings @ Calgary Flames | home | W | +0.01 | +$1.49 |
| Apr 14, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers | away | W | +0.02 | +$0.90 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Utah Mammoth @ Calgary Flames | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.87 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Calgary Flames @ Seattle Kraken | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$16.90 across 35 picks.
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
Elo Favorites with Score Variance
72-5 record · 93.5% hit rate
Home Elo Favorites in Low-Scoring
51-4 record · 92.7% hit rate
Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Def Hits
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 70.32. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 52%.
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Teams with Ref Home Edge" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 696-237 (74.60% hit rate) with 42.41% ROI across 933 graded picks. Closing line value averages 5.30, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Teams with Ref Home Edge system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Ref Home Edge system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1868 total qualifying games, with 933 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
1868
HIT RATE
74.60%
RECORD
696-237
ROI
+42.41%