Home Teams with Inconsistent PKs
Backs home teams that have strong recent power play conversion rates above 13.5% but have been outscored by opponents recently, maintain moderate home Elo ratings, and show high variability in power play goals allowed over their last 10 games.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
117
HIT RATE
71.15%
RECORD
37-15
ROI
+35.84%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
37
52
15
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Off Powerplaypct
Avg 5 Gen Goaldifferential
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is below 3.445. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Std 10 Def Powerplaygoalsagainst
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Home Favorites with Elo Edge
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Teams with Inconsistent PKs" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 37-15 (71.15% hit rate) with 35.84% ROI across 52 graded picks. Closing line value averages 3.28, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Teams with Inconsistent PKs system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Inconsistent PKs system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 117 total qualifying games, with 52 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.