Home Favorites with Recent OT Losses
Backs home teams with a substantial Elo rating advantage (88+ points) over their opponent, an elevated home Elo index above 183, and at least one overtime loss in their last 10 games.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
179
HIT RATE
88.04%
RECORD
81-11
ROI
+68.08%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers | away | W | +0.02 | +$0.90 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.31 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ St. Louis Blues | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.65 |
| Apr 6, '26 | St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | — | +$0.27 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$13.70 across 7 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 183.23. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Pavg 10 P Overtimelosses Mean
Picks by Month
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites with Recent OT Losses" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 81-11 (88.04% hit rate) with 68.08% ROI across 92 graded picks. Closing line value averages 16.66, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites with Recent OT Losses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites with Recent OT Losses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 179 total qualifying games, with 92 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
81
92
11
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES