Home Favorites vs Shaky Goalies
Backs home teams rated evenly or better than their opponent by Elo, with strong home venue advantage and favorable referee crews, facing goaltenders who have shown inconsistent even-strength save percentage over their last five games.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
210
HIT RATE
87.62%
RECORD
92-13
ROI
+67.27%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, '26 | Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.87 |
| Apr 11, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ Detroit Red Wings | away | W | — | +$1.16 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 5, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens | away | W | — | +$1.26 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Washington Capitals @ New Jersey Devils | home | W | -0.01 | +$0.84 |
| Mar 31, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$213.00 across 7 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 55.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Opp Pavg 5 P Evenstrengthsaves Std
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 52%.
Picks by Month
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
Elo Favorites with Score Variance
72-5 record · 93.5% hit rate
Home Elo Favorites in Low-Scoring
51-4 record · 92.7% hit rate
Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites vs Shaky Goalies" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 92-13 (87.62% hit rate) with 67.27% ROI across 105 graded picks. Closing line value averages 12.70, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites vs Shaky Goalies system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites vs Shaky Goalies system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 210 total qualifying games, with 105 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
92
105
13
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES