Heavy Favorites with Shot Volume
Backs spread bets on teams with strong implied win probability (above 70.7%) that have averaged more than 30 shots on goal over their last 10 games, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
Part of all NHL ATS system records.
TOTAL PICKS
479
HIT RATE
61.50%
RECORD
131-82
ROI
+17.41%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers | away | L | -3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Colorado Avalanche @ St. Louis Blues | away | W | -3.00 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 6, '26 | St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche | home | L | +0.27 | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche | home | W | +0.18 | +$0.91 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$218.20 across 7 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Off Shotstotal
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins more than 51% of the time.
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins more than 71% of the time.
Picks by Month
Related NHL ATS Systems
Underdog Puckline vs Low-Scoring Foes
74-35 record · 67.9% hit rate
Puckline vs Volatile Defense
66-36 record · 64.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Hot Shot Metrics
148-82 record · 64.3% hit rate
Puckline vs Volatile Defense
170-100 record · 63.0% hit rate
Underdogs with Moderate Blocking
119-70 record · 63.0% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Heavy Favorites with Shot Volume" NHL ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 131-82 (61.50% hit rate) with 17.41% ROI across 213 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.00, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Heavy Favorites with Shot Volume system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Heavy Favorites with Shot Volume system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 479 total qualifying games, with 213 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
131
213
82
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES