Trendline Labs

Elo Favorites with Shot Discipline

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs NHL teams with a substantial Elo rating advantage over their opponent (difference exceeding 88.68), who have averaged 22.95 or fewer missed shots over their last 10 games and meet a specific rest threshold.

Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.

Elo Favorites with Shot Discipline is a verified NHL moneyline betting system that backs NHL teams with a substantial Elo rating advantage over their opponent (difference exceeding 88.68), who have averaged 22.95 or fewer missed shots over their last 10 games and meet a specific rest threshold. Tracked across 54 graded picks, it holds a 35-19 record with a 64.81% hit rate and 23.74% ROI. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

35

54

19

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

Related NHL Moneyline Systems

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 10 Off Shotsmissed

at most 22.95avg_10_off_shotsmissed
2

Elo Diff

above 2.73elo_diff
3

Elo Diff

above 88.68elo_diff
4

Prob Rest Ix

at most -0.49prob_rest_ix

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Elo Favorites with Shot Discipline" NHL Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 35-19 (64.81% hit rate) with 23.74% ROI across 54 graded picks. Closing line value averages -21.13, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Elo Favorites with Shot Discipline system fire a pick?

The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Elo Favorites with Shot Discipline system?

The system has been evaluated against 127 total qualifying games, with 54 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

127

HIT RATE

64.81%

RECORD

35-19

ROI

+23.74%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

Matchups

Systems

Titan