Over vs Disciplined Low-Foul Teams
Targets overs when the team being bet on has allowed 108.7 points or fewer per game over their last 5 games, faces an opponent with consistent steal rate metrics, and has maintained low technical foul discipline over their last 10 games.
Part of all NBA Over/Under system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
103
179
76
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NBA Over/Under Systems
Team Over with Low Fouls High Variance
91-34 record · 72.8% hit rate
Disciplined Teams Over
102-42 record · 70.8% hit rate
Over vs Familiar Home Favorites
97-44 record · 68.8% hit rate
Team Unders vs Stingy Defenses
55-25 record · 68.8% hit rate
Over vs Familiar Chippy Teams
91-43 record · 67.9% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Opp Pavg 5 P Avg48steals Std
Pavg 10 P Avg48technicalfouls Max
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over vs Disciplined Low-Foul Teams" NBA Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 103-76 (57.54% hit rate) with 9.85% ROI across 179 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.50, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over vs Disciplined Low-Foul Teams system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over vs Disciplined Low-Foul Teams system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 370 total qualifying games, with 179 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
370
HIT RATE
57.54%
RECORD
103-76
ROI
+9.85%