Trendline Labs

Disciplined Teams Over

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs the over for teams that have committed 19.1 fouls or fewer per game over their last 5 contests, are playing before game 104 of the season, and have exhibited high statistical variance throughout the year.

Part of all NBA Over/Under system records.

Disciplined Teams Over is a verified NBA over/under betting system that backs the over for teams that have committed 19.1 fouls or fewer per game over their last 5 contests, are playing before game 104 of the season, and have exhibited high statistical variance throughout the year. Tracked across 144 graded picks, it holds a 102-42 record with a 70.83% hit rate and 35.23% ROI. Average closing line value: 0.5764 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

102

144

42

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

Related NBA Over/Under Systems

When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Avg 5 Gen Fouls

at most 19.10avg_5_gen_fouls
2

Game Number In Season

at most 103.50game_number_in_season
3

Season Variance Ix

above 1695.83season_variance_ix

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Disciplined Teams Over" NBA Over/Under system still work?

The system's live record is 102-42 (70.83% hit rate) with 35.23% ROI across 144 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.58, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Disciplined Teams Over system fire a pick?

The system triggers a NBA over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Disciplined Teams Over system?

The system has been evaluated against 410 total qualifying games, with 144 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

410

HIT RATE

70.83%

RECORD

102-42

ROI

+35.23%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

Matchups

Systems

Titan