Away Dogs vs Foul-Heavy Opponents
Backs away teams with moderate road pricing and balanced home Elo performance against opponents whose recent lineups have averaged high personal foul rates over their last 5 games.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
142
HIT RATE
80.25%
RECORD
65-16
ROI
+53.20%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, '26 | Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors | home | W | — | +$0.01 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors | home | W | — | +$0.61 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors | home | W | — | +$0.71 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 4, '26 | Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies | away | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$74.90 across 8 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Book Avg Away Ml
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is below 10.815. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 1.24. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Opp Pavg 5 P Avgfouls Mean
Picks by Month
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Away Dogs vs Foul-Heavy Opponents" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 65-16 (80.25% hit rate) with 53.20% ROI across 81 graded picks. Closing line value averages -14.52, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Away Dogs vs Foul-Heavy Opponents system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Away Dogs vs Foul-Heavy Opponents system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 142 total qualifying games, with 81 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
65
81
16
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES