Trendline Labs

Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs favorites against opponents in the middle tier of overall strength (Elo 1377-1526) who have been scoring below league average while allowing opponents to score at a high rate over their last 5 games.

Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.

Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses is a verified NBA moneyline betting system that backs favorites against opponents in the middle tier of overall strength (Elo 1377-1526) who have been scoring below league average while allowing opponents to score at a high rate over their last 5 games. Tracked across 57 graded picks, it holds a 54-3 record with a 94.74% hit rate and 80.86% ROI. Average closing line value: 23.2727 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

54

57

3

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

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When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Opp Avg 5 Pts

at most 104.45opp_avg_5_pts
2

Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed

above 120.67opp_avg_5_pts_allowed
3

Opp Elo

at most 1525.53opp_elo
4

Opp Elo

above 1376.90opp_elo

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 54-3 (94.74% hit rate) with 80.86% ROI across 57 graded picks. Closing line value averages 23.27, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses system fire a pick?

The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses system?

The system has been evaluated against 112 total qualifying games, with 57 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

112

HIT RATE

94.74%

RECORD

54-3

ROI

+80.86%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

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Favorites vs Cold Porous Defenses: 54-3 Record | NBA ML