Underdogs with Low Home History
Backs spread underdogs receiving runs when their implied win probability is 40.7% or lower and their historical home win percentage is below .414.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
158
258
100
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins less than 41% of the time.
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate below 41%.
Team Spread
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Underdogs with Low Home History" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 158-100 (61.24% hit rate) with 16.91% ROI across 258 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.00, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Underdogs with Low Home History system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Underdogs with Low Home History system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 534 total qualifying games, with 258 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
534
HIT RATE
61.24%
RECORD
158-100
ROI
+16.91%