Run Line Dogs with Low PA
Backs underdogs on the run line who are priced as slight moneyline favorites or near pick'em and have averaged fewer plate appearances per game over their last 10 contests, indicating tighter lineups or fewer offensive opportunities.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
471
675
204
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, '26 | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | away | W | +2.68 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | away | W | +2.14 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 4, '26 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals | home | L | +0.09 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | home | W | +0.32 | +$0.91 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$81.80 across 4 picks.
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Bat Plateappearances
Moneyline Price
Team moneyline is shorter than +107.5.
Team Spread
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Run Line Dogs with Low PA" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 471-204 (69.78% hit rate) with 33.21% ROI across 675 graded picks. Closing line value averages -0.41, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Run Line Dogs with Low PA system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Run Line Dogs with Low PA system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1281 total qualifying games, with 675 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
1281
HIT RATE
69.78%
RECORD
471-204
ROI
+33.21%