Home Favorites with Deep Starters
Backs heavily favored home teams whose starting pitcher has averaged over 75.9 pitches per start in their last 5 games and demonstrated consistent home run prevention with standard deviation of 0.67 or less over their last 10 games.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
TOTAL PICKS
168
HIT RATE
67.07%
RECORD
55-27
ROI
+28.05%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Pitch Pitchesasstarter
Book Avg Home Ml
Std 10 Pitch Homeruns
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites with Deep Starters" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 55-27 (67.07% hit rate) with 28.05% ROI across 82 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.00, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites with Deep Starters system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites with Deep Starters system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 168 total qualifying games, with 82 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
55
82
27
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES