Away Dogs with Modest Odds
Backs away underdogs receiving positive run line value with average away spread odds at or below 118.4 and implied win probability just above 46.4%, targeting road teams getting points while maintaining near-even-money market positioning.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Book Avg Away Spread Odds
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins more than 46% of the time.
Team Spread
TOTAL PICKS
2858
HIT RATE
67.85%
RECORD
1030-488
ROI
+29.54%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | away | W | +2.95 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 14, '26 | New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | away | L | +2.95 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers | away | L | +3.00 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | away | W | +2.95 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 11, '26 | San Francisco Giants @ Baltimore Orioles | home | W | +0.09 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers | away | L | +2.95 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | away | L | +2.95 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers | away | L | +1.91 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | home | W | — | +$0.91 |
| Apr 8, '26 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox | away | L | +2.95 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox | away | W | +2.91 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays | away | W | +2.41 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 7, '26 | San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates | away | L | +2.95 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers | away | W | +2.14 | +$0.91 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | away | L | +2.68 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 6, '26 | San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates | away | W | +2.68 | +$0.91 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$663.60 across 42 picks.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
1030
1518
488
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Picks by Month
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Away Dogs with Modest Odds" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 1030-488 (67.85% hit rate) with 29.54% ROI across 1518 graded picks. Closing line value averages -0.35, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Away Dogs with Modest Odds system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Away Dogs with Modest Odds system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 2858 total qualifying games, with 1518 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.