Undervalued Teams with Strong Field Goal Efficiency

How This System Works

This betting system applies to NFL moneyline bets where the team has averaged a margin of victory or defeat greater than -0.275 points over their last 10 games, has averaged a field goal percentage of 72.2833% or lower over their last 3 games, and has an Elo rating within 0.18 points (plus or minus) of their expected value. These conditions identify games involving a team that has performed near even or slightly above even over their last 10 games, has recently converted field goals at a below-average rate, and is rated by Elo as approximately equal in strength to what the market expects.

Targets teams with competitive scoring margins, elite kicking accuracy at 72% or better, and market undervaluation based on Elo ratings.