Strong Favorites with Limited Kickoff Distance

How This System Works

This system applies to teams with an average kickoff distance of 47.8333 yards or less over their last 3 games, an Elo rating 29.255 points above the opponent, and an implied win probability of 81% or lower from the moneyline odds. These conditions together identify games where a moneyline favorite with a moderate Elo advantage and shorter recent kickoff distances faces an opponent they are expected to beat, but not by an overwhelming margin according to the betting market.

Backs teams rated highly by Elo with moderate implied probability when their average longkickoff distance is under 47.8 yards. Targets favorites priced at 81% or less with a significant Elo advantage of at least +29.