Underdogs vs Porous Defenses
Backs teams with below-average recent free throw shooting and moderate-to-low win probability facing opponents that have scored at a limited rate while allowing very high point totals over their last 5 games.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
89
HIT RATE
91.67%
RECORD
33-3
ROI
+75.00%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
33
36
3
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Off Freethrowpct
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins less than 74% of the time.
Opp Avg 5 Pts
Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Underdogs vs Porous Defenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 33-3 (91.67% hit rate) with 75.00% ROI across 36 graded picks. Closing line value averages 1.75, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Underdogs vs Porous Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Underdogs vs Porous Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 89 total qualifying games, with 36 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.