Teams vs Tight Defenses
Backs teams that have allowed over 100 points per game in their last 5, won 3 or fewer of those games, but posted a combined margin exceeding 46 points across their last 3 wins, when facing opponents allowing 113 or fewer points per game recently.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
87
123
36
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Combined Margin Last 3
Last 5 Wins
Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Teams vs Tight Defenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 87-36 (70.73% hit rate) with 35.03% ROI across 123 graded picks. Closing line value averages 4.31, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Teams vs Tight Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Teams vs Tight Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 234 total qualifying games, with 123 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
234
HIT RATE
70.73%
RECORD
87-36
ROI
+35.03%