Team vs Porous Defenses
Backs teams with strong recent defensive turnover creation (averaging over 17.25 points off turnovers in their last 10 games) and consistent fastbreak scoring, facing opponents who have allowed high scoring (over 125.7 PPG) in their last 5 games, in matchups where the Elo ratings are relatively close.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
265
HIT RATE
80.26%
RECORD
122-30
ROI
+53.23%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
122
152
30
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, '26 | Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers | home | W | — | +$0.04 |
| Apr 12, '26 | Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors | away | L | -0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.83 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets | away | L | -0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets | home | W | — | +$1.02 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets | away | L | +0.03 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.65 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks | away | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 4, '26 | Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 3, '26 | New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers | home | W | -0.01 | +$0.41 |
| Apr 3, '26 | Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 2, '26 | New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Mar 31, '26 | Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: -$1205.90 across 21 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Def Turnoverpoints
Elo Diff
Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Std 5 Off Fastbreakpoints
Picks by Month
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Team vs Porous Defenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 122-30 (80.26% hit rate) with 53.23% ROI across 152 graded picks. Closing line value averages 6.59, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Team vs Porous Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Team vs Porous Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 265 total qualifying games, with 152 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.