Road Favorites Against Weak Rim Protection

How This System Works

This system applies to away team moneyline bets where the team has averaged 2.9791 or fewer defensive blocks per 100 possessions over their last 5 games, the maximum value among their last 10 games of average defensive rebounds per player exceeds 8.25, and the team is a moneyline favorite priced at -2.25 or shorter. These conditions together identify road favorites with low recent shot-blocking rates but high individual defensive rebounding in recent games.

Backs road favorites priced around -225 when opponents allow low defensive blocks per 100 possessions and have recent high defensive rebounding variance from their best players.