Near-Even Teams with Foul Trouble
Backs teams near even money or as underdogs that are not heavily disfavored by Elo ratings, have committed fouls at a much higher rate than blocking shots over their last 5 games, and have shown inconsistent three-point shooting volume across their last 10 games.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
127
HIT RATE
66.67%
RECORD
46-23
ROI
+27.27%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Gen Blockfoulratio
Elo Diff
Std 10 Off Threepointfieldgoalsattempted
Moneyline Price
Team moneyline is longer than -142.5.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Near-Even Teams with Foul Trouble" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 46-23 (66.67% hit rate) with 27.27% ROI across 69 graded picks. Closing line value averages -1.93, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Near-Even Teams with Foul Trouble system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Near-Even Teams with Foul Trouble system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 127 total qualifying games, with 69 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
46
69
23
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES